Intel Overwatch News Synopsis: 6/8/15

.http://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/isis%E2%80%99s-military-operations-during-ramadan-forecast-2015?utm_source=What%20ISIS%20Might%20Try%20Next%3A%20%20A%20Forecast%20for%20Ramadan%

State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) to pursue during Ramadan (June 17, 2015 to July 17, 2015) ISIS is likely to begin and end Ramadan with attempted spectacular military offensive actions in Iraq and Syria.

http://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/ISIS%20COAs_2.pdf

http://www.nationalinterest.org/feature/welcome-tunisias-resource-wars-13058?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=*Mideast%20Brief&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign

“Even though it remains unclear whether the frustration associated with and directed at the country’s natural resource sector can become cohesive enough to overwhelm the current regime , it is certainly a viable risk.”

Beleaguered by economic and security issues since 2011, Tunisia has so far managed to avoid another episode of mass social unrest. As the Islamic State’s rise and expansion have demonstrated, however, Tunisia lacks the sustained stability it needs to function optimally. Security issues are certainly important, but the seemingly myopic focus on counterterrorism by both the Tunisian government and its allies overlooks the role that Tunisia’s natural resources is playing in creating a new wave of dissent. Read next piece of isis caliphate next to Libya – morocco in the works but not overtly yet

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/05/did-germany-send-rpgs-to-saudi-arabia-in-order-to-win-the-world-cup/

Germany allegedly provided RPGs to Saudi Arabia in order to secure its support for the country’s 2006 World Cup bid.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a15728/manpads-threat-american-troops/

Biggest threat to troops abroad, but rather shoulder-fired surface-to-air-missiles. Why houthi haven’t used them I am totally surprised

China

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-is-at-virtual-war-with-the-us-2015-6

Information taken includes security clearance information and background checks going back decades.  “This is deep. The data goes back to 1985,” the official said. “This means that they potentially have information about retirees, and they could know what they did after leaving government.” “It’s very serious indeed,” geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer, the founder of Eurasia Group Bremmer added: “We should be very clear: China is at virtual war with the United States, and the threat is far higher than that of terrorism, which gets the lion’s share of attention — and, in the post-9/11 world, funding.”

http://www.businessinsider.com/what-alarmists-dont-realize-about-chinese-military-power-2015-6?utm_content=&utm_medium=email&utm_source=alerts&nr_email_referer=1

our debt if fueling their military buildup. The war hawks have to be willing to take a hit on the us economy to be sincere – I totally agree and have been hitting on.  Yet our leaders do not have the huevos to make the hard decisions.  Technically China is vulnerable economically at the moment.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-06-04/china-s-military-might-first-the-good-news

Chinese forces lag far behind their U.S. counterparts in quality of equipment, experience and training. U.S. has a huge advantage in training and war-fighting experience. China has not been in a major international conflict since 1979, when Deng Xiaoping ordered the ill-fated ground invasion of Vietnam

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-06-05/china-s-rising-military-now-for-the-hard-part

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-has-slowly-been-eating-away-at-india-2014-9

Old piece from last September but getting to flare up next month

China has invested in port installations that can support the country’s commercial and military activities in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar. slow infiltration of Chinese troops in disputed Himalayan territory,

Why important – will connect an untapped area for the new silk road

http://blogs.cfr.org/davidson/2015/06/04/chinas-territorial-strategy-is-gradualist-asymmetric-and-effective-how-should-the-united-states-respond/

Gradualist strategy is asymmetric from the perspective of value placed on the outcome. China cares immensely both about the specific objective of building islands perceived to be Chinese territory and the tangible goal of establishing sovereignty within the nine-dash line. Onlookers in Washington seem to care less about each individual minor link in the chain of manufactured territories and more about the broad strategic implications of Chinese military outposts in the South China Sea. The Chinese economic engine should thus become a focal point for U.S. strategy. While the TPP and BIT are broader than the U.S. and China, increased economic integration with China may not have the highest utility in quelling geopolitical challenges in the South China Sea and elsewhere. Instead, policymakers should turn toward the business community to explore alternatives that would curtail U.S. trade flows into China’s expansionist engine.

http://en.people.cn/n/2015/0605/c90786-8902744.html

Norinoco  high-end VT-4 tank, China says it can kick the Russian t-14’s butt

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/in-a-series-of-hacks-china-appears-to-building-a-database-on-americans/2015/06/05/d2af51fa-0ba3-11e5-95fd-d580f1c5d44e_story.html?postshare=5641433538947772

Targeting of large-scale data­bases is a relatively new tactic and is used by the Chinese government to further its ­intelligence-gathering, the officials and analysts say. It is government espionage, not commercial espionage, they say data can be used to glean details about key government personnel and potential spy recruits, or to gain information useful for counter­intelligence.

.http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/howard-french-on-africa-chinas-second-continent/

China’s economic interests in Africa are heavily oriented toward extractive industries, and new Chinese economic operators typically bring with them with a spotty history of regulatory compliance, respect for the environment, or experience of dealing with independent organized labor. In African countries with weak or venal governments extraction under these circumstances may bring little long-term gain, and potentially even great long-term damage. Over 1.5mm chicom workers in various projects from Zimbabwe to Sudan and currently Djibouti.

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20150606000144&cid=1101&MainCatID=0

PLA’s MIRV-equipped missiles pose threat to US  – of course

ECONOMICS

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/581749/Uk-food-shortages-predicted-drivers-refuse-ship-goods-violent-Calais-asylum-seekers

UK SUPERMARKETS could soon run short of essential goods because asylum seekers trying to force their way onto lorries at Calais have brought Britain’s food supply chain to the brink of collapse. Large parts of Calais are in the grip of almost perpetual violence and turf wars as gangs of migrants battle in the street over access to the best routes across the English Channel.  Lorry drivers at many European haulage companies are so terrified of passing through the notorious port that many are now refusing to run the route to Britain.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/greece-creditors-consider-extending-eurozone-bailout-until-march-1433788055?cb=logged0.08360231923870742?mod=mktw&cb=logged0.37489160053530435

EU prodding the government in Athens to agree to painful concessions in exchange for rescue funds. But continued disagreements over the economic overhauls and austerity measures demanded by Greece’s lenders risk undermining the pla. Either way  -without debt write off now or in the future, Greece is tits up – debt load close to 180% of its gross domestic product and an economy back in recession, Greece is unable to raise money from international bond markets and has been depending on rescue loans from the eurozone and IMF for more than five years.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-03/here-s-what-defaults-did-to-other-countries-as-greece-teeters

problem with Greece is that defaulting on the debt without the followup of a devaluation may buy time but won’t resolve its growth problems, if Greece chose to default and stayed inside the euro zone, the option of a devaluation would not exist so it’s not clear why Greece should experience a growth rebound.

http://rt.com/business/264049-greece-turkish-stream-invetsment/#.VXCBGjuq5n4.twitter

Greece to invest $2 bn in Turkish Stream, will sign memorandum asap – but I thought they were broke. Greece’s part of the pipeline, which will be delivering Russia’s gas on from the Turkish border. Up to 20,000 jobs and Putin has previously expressed his belief that, by joining the project, Greece could become one of the main power distribution centers in Europe. Athens could earn hundreds of millions of euros annually from gas transit fees, Putin said during Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ official visit to Moscow in April. The new pipeline, which Gazprom plans to build from Turkey to the border with Greece, will be part of the Turkish Stream project aimed at delivering Russian gas to Europe without the participation of Ukraine. Russia intends to completely abandon its gas supplies through Ukraine by 2019.  Read Ukraine soon will freeze if they don’t get their own going.

Epidemic

http://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/exclusive-patient-extreme-form-tb-sent-nih-n371806

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/09/science/tuberculosis-case-prompts-search-for-patients-fellow-airline-passengers.html?_r=2

Health officials are trying to identify people who may have come into contact with a woman who flew from India to Chicago in April and had a type of tuberculosis that is highly resistant to drug treatment. Cdc says risk to the public is low – so  why is tb infections increasing around the country

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/2015/06/07/nearly-indiana-students-test-positive-tuberculosis/28656509/

50 Southern Indiana students exposed to a classmate with a confirmed case of tuberculosis have tested positive for the disease in preliminary tests, health officials said. Positive skin test is not conclusive infection.

http://www.kltv.com/story/29189600/4-being-treated-for-tuberculosis-after-coming-into-contact-with-gregg-county-patient

Texas Department of State Health Services said Friday that 60 other people are being screened for TB . GREGG COUNTY, TX (KLTV) – Four additional people are being treated for tuberculosis after coming in contact with a patient in Gregg County.

http://www.mlive.com/lansing-news/index.ssf/2015/06/bird_flu_found_in_michigan_gee.html

Michigan is the 21st state to report a case of the H5 bird flu virus since December, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. To date, no human infections have been detected in the United States. highly pathogenic” label means the virus is capable of spreading to poultry. That’s happened in 15 states, according to the CDC,

Iran

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/06/islamic-state-iran-border.html

Why have the Iranian officials started to worry about IS entering Iran?  IS is determined to overthrow Iran, which they refer to as the Safavid state.

• IS military victories in different provinces of Iraq in the past few months.

• The existence of high military, social and religious potentials in the border provinces of Iran such as Kurdistan, Sistan and Baluchistan, Khuzestan and Kermanshah.

• The Iranian army’s ground forces’ lack of proper weaponry. (Pourdastan had asked the Iranian parliament members to allocate a budget for the army to buy new tanks and helicopters.

Iraq

http://presstv.com/Detail/2015/06/06/414648/IMF-Iraq-Loan-ISIL

IMF has announced in a statement that the emergency loan will be meant to help Iraq with its war on ISIL terrorists as well as the effects of the low oil prices. GREECE says they are a better credit risk. raqi economy contracted 2.1% in 2014 “mainly because of the violence”, and might grow only 0.5% this year. Also, weak oil revenues, the Fund added in its statement, are expected to increase Iraq’s budget deficit and decrease its foreign assets.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/iraq/160104/isil-shuts-down-ramadi-dam-in-iraq

ISIL cut water flow to al-Khalediya district and al-Habbaniya area, which are under the control of security forces and tribal fighters

http://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/244329-us-training-mission-stalls-entirely-at-one-iraqi-site?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=*Situation%20Report&utm_campaign=SitRep0609

U.S. is currently training only 2,600 Iraqi soldiers currently receiving training from about 3,000 U.S. military personnel but none of them are at Al Asad, officials said.  Al Asad has zero. And Al Asad has had zero now for some time. Al Asad air base is one of the primary training site for Sunni tribal fighters. Sunni forces who were defending the city said they had not received any training or equipment from the central government, which is dominated by Shiites. They still haven’t gotten over many of their sectarian divides, so that is creating some of the problems as well,”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/11657113/islamic-state-spells-doom-for-iraqs-sunni-muslims.html

This is not a straightforward war, where bombing matters; but nor is it a matter of hearts and minds, since Isil does not care about the disintegration of Sunni morale, but profits from it. This is a new paradigm of war, and Iraq awaits a new strategy to deal with it.

ISIS

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-04/why-body-counts-are-a-bad-metric-for-judging-islamic-state-fight

U.S.-led coalition has killed about 10,000 Islamic State fighters since its campaign against the group began 10 months ago problem is they have had over 25k recruits come in. U.S.-led airstrikes have dropped more than 13,000 bombs on targets in Syria and Iraq since August, and the U.S. military issues a running tally of targets damaged and destroyed, which total more than 6,000 including buildings, fighting positions and vehicles. The cost of the U.S. military operations in Iraq and Syria exceeds $2.44 billion, according to the Pentagon, an average of $8.9 million a day.  Body counts didn’t work in Vietnam so why now?

http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/how-survived-year-bombing-and-ground-war-1619065958

Small unit tactics with commitment and morale-only attack targets which have been thoroughly surveyed from the ground by collaborators or from the air by IS’s cheap drones, and sometimes by both. This gives IS’s fighters a clear view of the theatre of action and minimises unwanted surprises. However, for Iraqi soldiers and Kurdish fighters, IS’s attacks feature speed, severity and surprise. To ensure the surprise element and reduce the visibility of aerial reconnaissance, IS often takes advantage of bad weather

http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/on-self-declared-caliph-ibrahim%E2%80%99s-may-2015-message-to-muslims

No. Islam is war. Islam is jihad. Worship is fighting. Fighting is proof of faith. If you are truthful in your claim, then obey your beloved and fight for the cause of Allah, and emulate your beloved (peace be upon him), and do not die except as a mujāhid for the cause of Allah

Our Prophet (peace be upon him) has informed us of the Malāhim (bloody battles) near the end of time. He gave us good tidings and promised us that we would be victorious in these battles. He is the truthful and trustworthy, peace be upon him. And here we are today seeing the signs of those Malāhim and we feel the winds of victory within them.[

http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/fears-islamic-state-could-build-dirty-bomb/story-e6frfku9-1227389032567?from=public_rss

FOREIGN Minister Julie Bishop says there are fears Islamic State jihadists have the materials necessary to build a dirty bomb- not fear fact. In Iraq and other places they have seized medical radioactive material  -1st isis hits the banks ,then the labs. Don’t forget the radioactive medical material stolen in n mexico two months ago  – not found yet

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/06/islamic-state-used-us-made-anti-tank-missiles-near-palmyra.php

capture of the ancient city of Palmyra, also known as Tadmur in Arabic.atleast one US-made BGM-71 TOW anti-tank missile is seen being used against Syrian regime troops near the city- these can kill a M1. ISIS has over 1k TOWS they captured from FSA.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/04/world/isis-making-political-gains.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share

Ideologically unified, the Islamic State is emerging as a social and political movement in many Sunni areas, filling a void in the absence of solid national identity and security. At the same time, it responds brutally to any other Sunni group, militant or civilian, that poses a challenge to its supremacy. Culturally – they require a heavy handed dictator type for stability

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/05/28/isis-wins-no-matter-what-happens-next.html?via=desktop&source=twitter

Latest planned attack on the terror army could be playing right into their hands. Zarqawi’s end-game was simple: by waging merciless atrocities against Iraq’s Shia majority population (and any Sunnis seen to be conspiring with it), Zarqawi’s jihadists would have only to stand back and watch as radicalized Shia militias, many of whose members also served in various Iraqi government and security roles, conducted their own retaliatory campaigns against the country’s Sunni minority. Internecine conflict would have the knock-on effect of driving Sunnis desperately into the jihadist fold, whether or not they sympathized with the ideology of al-Qaeda in Iraq, Zarqawi’s franchise and the earliest incarnation of what we now call the Islamic State. Iraq’s sectarian division, whereby Sunnis have been forced out of Shia-controlled areas under the auspices of fighting ISIS, reflects the fact that the Hashd operates more according to Tehran’s geo-strategic and ideological interests, the former official said. “I feel that Iran and some of its erstwhile allies have reached a realization that they have lost a significant ally in Syria and therefore need to buffer the ‘Shia’ zones in Iraq to protect them while paying lip service to the notion of a unified state.” n other words, he wanted the Shia militias, principally the Badr Corps—now first among equals in the Hashd—to commit anti-Sunni atrocities as payback for Zarqawi’s own scorched-earth war against the Shia. “If we manage to draw them onto the terrain of partisan war, it will be possible to tear the Sunnis away from their heedlessness, for they will feel the weight of the imminence of danger and the devastating threat of death wielded by these Sabeans.”

http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/06/03/414135/Anbar-ISIL-Ramadi-Saudimade-weapons

Popular Mobilization fighters attacked the positions of the Takfiri terrorists in an area in the district of al-Baghdadi in the provincial capital of Ramadi capturing phone set, electronic bombs, rockets and some automatic munitions made by Saudi Arabia were among the items discovered and confiscated by the Iraqi forces.

http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/06/03/414102/Former-CIA-spy-US-ISIL-

It’s very safe politically; they want to control everything in Washington,” he said. “You have to have an intelligence presence on the ground. There has to be a viable political process that’s able to bring together the actors inside Iraq and Syria and for them to be able to decide how they are going to have a peaceful future,” he said. “So it’s a combination of military and political pressure that needs to be brought to bear – problem is how is anyone going to get the different factions to overlook the past – no one can so ISIS will continue to spread

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/05/doubling-down-on-a-doubtful-strategy-iraq-islamic-state-isis/

US drip feeding support to Iraq at a time when its enemy, the Islamic State — and its competitors, Iran’s militant proxies — are out-performing Washington by a long shot. If current trends persist, there is no reason to believe the Islamic State will be defeated any time soon. In fact, Iraq could become an even greater nightmare for its citizens, the region, and the world in the years ahead. Nation building won’t work.

http://www.businessinsider.com/kurd-and-shia-tensions-in-iraq-2015-6?nr_email_referer=1&utm_source=Triggermail&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Business%20Insider%20Select&utm_campaign=BI%20Select%20%28Tuesday%20Thursday%29%202015-06-09&utm_content=emailshare

Things just got easier for ISIS -in Jalawla, a town near the Iranian border, Kurdish fighters have kicked out Shia militias they fought alongside to retake the territory from the Islamic State- been talk of an independent Kurdistan for some time, and it seems that Kurds, an ethnic group, have been seizing on the opportunity to take over territory that they expel ISIS from. “This area is ours now, and that’s not changing,” Brigadier General Mahmoud Sangawi, who commands Kurdish Peshmerga forces, told the Beast in Jalawla. “For me, if [ISIS or Shia militias] attack me I will attack them, because this is my land. If they come to this land, of course I will fight them.”

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/06/is-infiltration-iraqi-kurdistan.html

ISIS has also targeted the Kurdistan Region by recruiting and radicalizing Kurdish youth. According to the KRG Ministry of Endowments and Religious Affairs, at least 500 Iraqi Kurdish youths have thus far joined IS to fight on the battleground in Mosul and Syria. One vehicle of local recruitment is the Kurdish mosques, and through local extremist Salafist clerics. Two of the most influential of these cleric-recruiters are Imam Gailani from Sulaimaniyah and Mullah Shwan, a well-known mullah linked to a mosque in Erbil under the auspices of the KRG’s Ministry of Religious Endowments. Mullah Shwan’s defection to IS was particularly shocking because he was considered a moderate religious leader and friend to the KRG Ministry of Religious Endowments. party control of the mosques and mullahs has not entirely prevented radicalization over time. Trends in the Kurdish media indicate that jihadi Salafist leaders are emitting radicalized messages on 10 different radio stations inside the Kurdistan Region. Nor are mosques the main or only source of IS recruitment. Most Kurds who have joined IS have not done so for ideology alone, if at all. According to an Iraqi Kurdish source who is related to and friendly with some Kurdish youths who joined and were killed by IS, none were recruited by the mosques. Rather, they were influenced by Salafist extremists while at university in Erbil and in turn, influenced friends from their hometown in an outlying area.

Latin America/Mexico

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2t8578

Protests over missing students escalate. Mayoral elections in the town of Tixtla de Guerrero are canceled after activists took to the streets, calling for the return of 43 Ayotzinapa students who disappeared in September of 2014.

http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/04/28/iranian-cultural-centers-established-to-promote-shiite-islam-blossom-in-latin-america/

Iranian “cultural centers,” established across Latin America to enhance the Shiite country’s influence in the region, have proliferated in the last three years, while the Obama administration has been trying to reach a nuclear agreement with Iran- 36 in 2012 to more than 80 today per Gen. Kelly, the current Southcom commander- 41 countries and territories in Latin American and the Caribbean. Thirty-one of those nations fall under Southcom’s area of responsibility (AOR). assessments acknowledge that Sunni extremists have also established a foothold in the Latin America region

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/mobile/inside.asp?xfile=/data/opinion/2015/June/opinion_June11.xml&section=opinion#.VXN_qWKpyo8.twitter

there are confirmed and documented Daesh cases in Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, as well as in Guyana

Latin America, particularly, Venezuela, Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil have been much more receptive to Shia groups like Hezbollah than Sunni. Traditionally, the Shia discourse fits in better with the Leftist viewpoints from Venezuela and the overall revolutionary rhetoric.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/05/can-this-mid-term-election-straighten-crooked-mexico-corruption/

After years of kickbacks and backroom deals with drug traffickers, Mexicans are finally talking about corruption. Will this election change things?   NO

http://www.breitbart.com/texas/2015/06/05/breaking-us-cbp-chopper-down-at-texas-border-fired-on-from-mexico/

CBP) helicopter was shot down or forced to initiate an emergency landing in Laredo, Texas due to receiving gunfire from the Mexican side of the border – shooting occurred in an area known as La Bota Ranch- laimed that two shots hit the cabin and one hit the engine. Another source close to the matter told Breitbart Texas that two shots hit the engine and one hit the cabin. Both sources cited in this paragraph claimed that an agent in the cabin was not wearing a vest and had it stashed on the floor and that the vest being on the floor ultimately saved the agent’s life. Agents explained that their vests are often placed below them in choppers because any rounds would come from below.

LIBYA

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3116667/ISIS-kidnap-86-Eritrean-Christians-people-smuggling-caravan-Libya-stopping-trucks-quizzing-Koran-Muslim.html

Islamic State’s Libya branch has carried out another kidnapping, targeting a large group of Eritrean Christians who were traveling to Libya in hope of boarding a migrant boat to Europe.

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/international/mideast-africa/2015/06/07/russia-china-block-un-libya-sanctions/28646463/

Russia and China on Friday opposed a US-led request to impose sanctions on two Libyans accused of obstructing UN talks on forming a national unity government, diplomats said. Britain, France, Spain and the United States had sought the measures to shore up efforts by UN envoy Bernardino Leon to clinch a political deal before the start of Ramadan on June 17.Our countries asked that a global travel ban and an assets freeze be imposed on Abdul Rahman Swehli, a politician from Misrata, and Othman Maliqta, commander of the Zintani Qaqa brigade.

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/islamic-state-closes-libya-s-oil-crescent-143691546

MEE speaks to tribal elders from town of Harawa where the IS flag was raised on Friday after weeks of negotiations – is have their sights set on gaining full control of an area known as Libya’s oil crescent, according to residents in the Libyan town which has become IS’s latest conquest. – long term strategy implementation while the blood baths continue

Middle East: Syria to Israel and Gulf States

http://www.worldbulletin.net/middle-east/160235/israel-sarabia-confirm-secret-meetings-to-thwart-iran

Look who is coming out of the closet-Israel and Saudi Arabia have held a series of secret meetings over the past 18 months to discuss how to thwart Iran’s threat to the region,- two countries are officially at war. However, they have common interests, chief among them preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Anwar Majed Eshki, a retired Saudi general and ex-adviser to Prince Bandar bin Sultan, told Bloomberg that no real cooperation would be possible until Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, accepted what’s known as the Arab Peace Initiative to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

http://agonist.org/more-than-230000-killed-in-syria-conflict/

more to come, acceleration getting ready to occur

http://www.businessinsider.com/another-sign-assad-is-getting-desperate-2015-6?utm_content=&utm_medium=email&utm_source=alerts&nr_email_referer=1

Iran/Hezbollah are planning something huge – will it work? Assad is a puppet now Iran is calling the shots

http://news.yahoo.com/report-israel-built-exploded-dirty-bomb-nuclear-test-175345314.html

Israeli tests were for defensive purposes only. They said high radiation was found at the center of blasts while small particles carried by wind didn’t pose serious danger, except for the psychological effect of such an attack – would be ineffective as a majority of the radiation remains in air conditioning filters.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/06/palestine-gaza-israel-border-pave-road-hamas-salafist-truce.html?utm_source=Al-Monitor+Newsletter

Since August 2014, is maintaining relative calm following the end of the 50-day war on Gaza. No breaches were recorded by either side except for rare incidents, most recently on May 27, when missiles were fired from both the Israeli and Palestinian sides. Nevertheless, these military movements could also be an introduction to a long-term truce with Israel in Gaza in an attempt to facilitate the reconstruction process, lifting the blockade and giving Palestinians the chance to catch their breath after three consecutive destructive wars. The security situation in the field points to the fact that Hamas is going in the direction of entrenching a possible truce with Israel and establishing calm, despite some breaches (on the part of Israel), which the Gaza Strip experienced in early June. Israel struck a number of camps belonging to Hamas in response to missiles that the Salafists had launched. For its part, Hamas stood still to show its wish to avoid escalating military developments.

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13940312000881

Several ISIL terrorists were killed and wounded in heavy clashes between the Palestinian resistance movement Hamas and the Takfiri terrorists –

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-next-step-in-erdogans-dance-with-the-kurds-1433358691

Rise of a Kurdish party could undermine the Turkish president’s earlier efforts to court the minority—and may save democracy and it did

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2015/06/08-turkish-voters-send-message-kirisci-cengiz?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=*Mideast%20Brief&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign

Turkish electorate sent two clear messages with this election. First and foremost is that Turkey has had enough of Erdoğan’s haughtiness.  And is that Turkish institutions—such as the judiciary, police, state media organizations, and economic regulatory bodies, including the central bank—should have better stood their ground and resisted Erdoğan’s bullying. Do not count Edrogan out but down for now. This will slow the islamification of turkey and that of the world.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/06/turkey-qatar-what-are-turkish-troops-going-to-do.html

Return of Turkish soldiers to Qatar after 100 years carries strong symbolic messages, the Turkish military is approaching the issue in a serious and professional manner.- How will Iran respond to Turkey’s deploying soldiers in Qatar? Elections may slow this down but is placing  assets for a future conflict.

Russia

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20150603000156&cid=1101&MainCatID=0

China has lodged complaints with Russia, Vietnam and the US after Moscow agreed to sell 50 submarine launched 3M54 Klub missiles to Hanoi. China currently has no effective defense against the Klub missile, which is likely why they are making such an issue out of the deal, the report said. Russia also agreed to sell six Kilo-class submarines to Vietnam in 2009, which provoked ire from Beijing.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/06/03/can-anyone-stop-putin-s-new-blitz.html?via=desktop&source=twitter

Last Wednesday Moscow-backed separatists—a contingent that consists of quite a lot of Moscow-dispatched Russian soldiers—launched a fresh, multi-pronged assault on Ukrainian-held territory. The primary targets lie west of a line of the demarcation meant to keep a cease-fire that was over before the ink had dried on the so-called “Minsk II” accords. maskirovka warfare so far, whereby Russia deploys insignia-less paratroops and Special Forces and dispatches advanced artillery and anti-aircraft systems into Ukraine, while strenuously denying at home and abroad that it has done any such thing. Putin foreign policy has ever been one of Freudian projections and double-binds. He accuses his opponents of the sins and crimes of which he himself is guilty, then fashions a trap for them whereby they lose whatever move they make. Arm Ukraine? Do that and we’ll escalate the war. Don’t arm Ukraine? We’ll escalate anyway. Abide by Minsk? We’ll violate it and blame you for breaking it. Break Minsk? Even better!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-06/cold-war-20-heats-washington-dusts-russia-containment-plans

Obama administration officials are considering new deterrence strategies to rein in Russian meddling in Europe, in what some say would amount to an updated version of Cold War-era containment.

http://sputniknews.com/military/20150606/1023027838.html

Russia finalized the project of a new Combat Railway Missile Complex (BZhRK) that will multiply its nuclear potential and counter the US Conventional Prompt Global Strike. Every “Barguzin” train will be armed with six ICBMs RS-24 Yars (a land equivalent of the submarine-launched five trains.

http://www.businessinsider.com/iran-russia-us-relations-after-nuclear-deal-2015-6

Iran’s objectives in the region conflict directly with both Western interests and those of key Western allies in the region, especially Saudi Arabia and Israel. A pro-American Iran is more dangerous for us than a nuclear Iran.’ … If you look at this as a zero-sum game, Iran getting closer to the West is a weakening of the Russian position.

Saudi Arabia

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13940312001418

trying to preempt internal guerilla war (after continued failures of the Saudi forces to protect the Arab country’s Shiite mosques from the ISIL attacks over the past two weeks tens of volunteer forces have set up popular committees to foil the ISIL’s plots, but some of them have now been detained by the Al-Saud security troops.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/06/yemen-saudi-arabia-iran-houthis-support-military.html

Saudi Arabia’s priority is to have a stable neighbor to the south and to protect its southernmost cities of Najran, Jizan and Khamis Mushayt. There are no ideological or hegemonic underpinnings to Saudi Arabia’s Yemen strategy. Iran will most likely maintain its military support to the Houthis, logistically, and politically as well, but they are highly unlikely to replace Saudi Arabia as Yemen’s indispensable aid benefactor.  I disagree, Iran is highly likely to displace yemen’s neighbor

http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/06/05/414384/Pakistan-Chaudhry-Saudi-Arabia-nuclear-weapons

Pakistan is not talking to Saudi Arabia on nuclear issues, period,” Pakistani Foreign Secretary Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry said on Thursday. Saudi Arabia topped India and became the world’s biggest importer of weapons, according to the Global Defense Trade Report in March, which added that the Arab country spent over USD 6.4 billion on weapons in 2014. Former British Foreign Secretary Lord David Owen said the Western military leaders “all assume the Saudis have made the decision to go nuclear.”

South China Sea

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/28/conflict-us-china-not-inevitable-empire?CMP=share_btn_tw

Opinion shaping piece while deny facts The US and China can avoid a collision course – if the US gives up its empire which means US standard of living too. But why take the risk, when maintaining US primacy just isn’t that important to the safety or prosperity of Americans? Knowing that should at least make the idea of giving up empire a little easier.- totally  disagree this is trying to say giving up US primacy just isn’t that important to the safety or prosperity of Americans – WRONG

http://thediplomat.com/2015/06/china-is-playing-offense-not-defense-in-the-south-china-sea/

China’s position in the international system leads to the expectation that Beijing is striving not to preserve the status quo, but rather to change the status quo in China’s favor. China is a rising great power that sees itself as the natural leader of a region currently under what the Chinese believe is excessive, illegitimate, and declining U.S. influence. As any other great power would do where feasible, China is striving to establish a sphere of influence – a zone of territory around its borders over which the Chinese have a degree of control. The disputed islands and a map inherited from the Republic of China government give the Chinese Communist Party an excuse to claim ownership of the South China Sea, but the Chinese have also demanded respectful treatment in areas of the Yellow Sea and even in the vicinity of Japan’s Ryukyu Islands where Beijing does not claim sovereignty over maritime territory. The strong do what they will, whether or not there is a legal basis.

http://www.military.com/daily-news/2015/06/05/report-china-dispatching-surveillance-vessels-off-hawaii.html#.VXT5dEdcOOc.twitter

China has begun dispatching surveillance vessels off the coast of Hawaii in response to the Navy’s monitoring activities of disputed islands in the South China Sea-shift in strategy for China’s military as “active defense.” Which used to be known as offense

UKRAINE

http://www.worldbulletin.net/europe/160264/ukraine-to-allow-foreign-forces-wmd

Admission of the armed forces of other states on the territory of Ukraine.” The possible hosting of foreign weapons of mass destruction is also mentioned in the documents.Response or provocation.

http://rt.com/business/265933-ukraine-companies-us-investors

President Petro Poroshenko invited foreign citizens to become key ministers in the new government of Ukraine, claiming that he views the foreigners as some kind of “anti-crisis management needed due to the difficult situation in economy”. massive privatization process of Ukraine’s state-run assets is planned for the second quarter of 2015. In April, the Ukrainian government decided to hold a number of investment conferences in Berlin, Paris and Washington to attract investors and to spread the privatization idea. The Prime Minister then said they expect to see American and European entrepreneurs in agriculture, energy, especially in the modernization of the Ukrainian gas transportation system and the mining industry, as well as in other vital sectors of the economy.  Then follow the lobby money to people like Lindsay Graham , john mccain  and we will have endangered America for investors.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/06/09/world/europe/ap-eu-poland-nato-exercise.html?ref=world

Hundreds of NATO troops with heavy equipment began a military exercise in Poland on Tuesday, testing the alliance’s rapid response readiness in the face of new security challenges on its eastern flank. spearhead force was agreed upon at a NATO summit last year in reaction to Russia’s role in the separatist fighting in Ukraine which has raised security concerns in other nearby nations that were once under Moscow’s dominance.

http://sputniknews.com/analysis/20150602/1022855357.html

We are, and I don’t want to sound alarmist but I am alarmed, closer to the actual possibility of war with Russia than we have ever been since the Cuban missile crisis. That’s how bad it’s been.” (Stephen Cohen rzezinski’s obsession derives from British geographer Sir Halford Mackinder’s 1904 definition of the Central-Eastern nations of Europe as the “Pivot Area”, whose geographic position made them “the vital springboards for the attainment of continental domination.” Whether anyone realizes it, the Obama administration’s current campaign against Russia in Ukraine is of Mackinder’s design brought forward by Brzezinski. As President Obama prepares for his address at the NATO Summit in Wales and for chairing the United Nations Security Council in September, the children of Zbignew Brzezinski, the aging anti-Russian strategist who advised President Obama during his first campaign, have been actively working to implement his Cold War schemes. Cracks me up –everyone quotes him but nobody says he is a pole – for decades

http://rinf.com/alt-news/featured/secretary-of-state-john-kerry-v-his-subordinate-victoria-nuland-regarding-ukraine/

Kerry under cut going Minsk by Nuland who is going Brezenski

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/04/escalation-fighting-east-ukraine-leaves-ceasefire-tatters-russian-forces?CMP=share_btn_tw

Porchenko is  now a “colossal threat of the resumption of large-scale hostilities by Russian and terrorist forces”. He claimed there were 9,000 Russian troops currently in the rebel-controlled areas of east Ukraine.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/07/us-g7-summit-idUSKBN0OM0I320150607

Merkel said any easing of the sanctions depended largely on Russia and its behavior in Ukraine.European Council President Donald Tusk went further, saying: “If anyone wants to start a discussion about changing the sanctions regime, it could only be about strengthening it.”

European monitors have blamed a recent upsurge in violence in eastern Ukraine on the pro-Moscow separatists. Russian President Vladimir Putin was frozen out of what used to be the G8 after Moscow’s annexation of Crimea last year.

http://www.rferl.org/content/poroshenko-ukraine-will-do-everything-retake-crimea/27055170.html

Poroshenko has vowed to seek Crimea’s return to Ukrainian rule, and reiterated that his country faces the threat of a major Russian invasion in the east. Putin will never let that happen and if Ukraine makes a move ala brezenski, it will WW3.

http://rt.com/news/265089-us-kiev-ceasefire-leak/#.VXH3NieCRRc.twitter

Minsk peace deal, which was brokered by the leaders of Russia, Germany and France, led to a significant decrease in fighting in eastern Ukraine and  both sides were to pull-out of all heavy weapons and create a security zone from 50 to 140 kilometers, depending on the range of the guns.

United States

http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/184265-isis-considers-transporting-nuclear-weapon-to-u-s-through-nigeria-says-countrys-army-collapsed.html

ISIS, the jihadist group in Syria, Iraq and Libya, has claimed it could purchase a nuclear device and transport same to the United States, through a network of countries including Nigeria, up to Mexico. latest propaganda magazine, Dabiq, published two weeks ago, the group said the plan is workable the same way banned drugs are transported through West Africa to Western countries, saying it could even be easier with the presence of Boko Haram, the Nigeria-based group that recently pledged allegiance to ISIS.

ISIS also described the Nigerian Army as “an exhausted and smashed national army that is now in a virtual state of collapse”.

The Islamic State has billions of dollars in the bank, so they call on their wilāyah in Pakistan to purchase a nuclear device through weapons dealers with links to corrupt officials in the region.

“The weapon is then transported overland until it makes it to Libya, where the mujāhidīn move it south to Nigeria. Drug shipments from Columbia bound for Europe pass through West Africa, so moving other types of contraband from East to West is just as possible.

“The nuke and accompanying mujāhidīn arrive on the shorelines of South America and are transported through the porous borders of Central America before arriving in Mexico and up to the border with the United States.

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/06/china-isis-iran-threat/394799/

Greatest potential threat to America’s national security involves Beijing, not Iran or “radical Islam.” When historians look back at this era in American history, they’ll find the lack of political debate about China astounding.First is that the Chinese threat isn’t visually spectacular. Second reason presidential candidates devote so much more attention to “radical Islam” than to China is money.Third reason is ideological. For the American right, it’s very important that U.S. adversaries be “evil.” ISIS has that spot now.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/06/09/ig-report-tsa-failed-to-identify-73-potential-terrorists-trying-to-get-access/

It still failed to flag 73 airport workers “linked to terrorism.” TSA DOES NOT HAVE FULL ACCESS TO TERRORIST DATABASE.Last week, news broke that undercover federal agents had a 95 percent success rate at sneaking fake bombs and other banned weapons past airport security checkpoints during multiple tests. Remember logan airport and 911- and what demographic dominated the ground crews.

https://charlescarrollsociety.com/2015/06/09/patriot-darknet-potentially-everyone-who-has-ever-had-a-clearance-compromised-by-latest-data-breach/

Whoever did it went for the psych files too- getting ready for something big.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102742373

Messages reportedly proclaimed “YOU’VE BEEN HACKED” and added “YOUR COMMANDERS ADMIT THEY ARE TRAINING THE PEOPLE THEY HAVE SENT YOU TO DIE FIGHTING.”

It’s not clear yet whether the Army or the hackers shut down the website.

The officials say the website is for general public access with general information about the Army, press releases and Army generated news stories.

http://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/darpa-and-us-air-force-are-developing-hypersonic-weapons/story-fnpjxnlk-1227382375769

US isn’t the only country looking to invest in and develop hypersonic technology either. According to reports on the conservative news website Washington Free Beacon, China is allegedly testing hypersonic cruise missiles that will eventually be able to reach speeds of up to Mach 10 (12,250km/h). That’s fast enough to break through US defense shields.

http://thediplomat.com/2015/06/us-india-look-to-open-up-defense-relationship/

U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter announced that New Delhi and Washington agreed on two small technology co-development projects at a total cost of $1 million, to be split evenly by the two countries over a two year period.

http://sputniknews.com/world/20150606/1023019604.html

Blind adherence to US policies and the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions have turned fatal for Europe; the axis of Russia-China-BRICS is set to overturn the global economic system and to prevail over the hegemony of the US, according to the chief economist of the German Bremer Landesbank.

Yemen

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/06/08/Saudi-boosts-military-support-near-Yemen-border-.html

Saudi Arabia reinforced its southern city of Jizan

included hundreds of military vehicles and artillery along with thousands of troops

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13940317001395

Different religions, including Shiites, Sunnis and Ezadis believe in Ansarullah Leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi and they have grown united against the Al Saud regime and in this way they stand up against the arrogant powers, including the US and the Zionist regime because this nation does not belong to a specific political group and they are only trying to achieve independence,” Sharafe ddin addressing a meeting of Qom Seminary instructors and scholars on Sunday.

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13940317001341

Riyadh in Range of Yemeni Missiles  – houthi may have the 700  mile range scuds still not blown up.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/06/05/Saudi-forces-repels-Houthi-attack-on-Najran.html

Saudi forces on Friday repelled an attack by Houthi militants and militias loyal to deposed leader Ali Abdullah Saleh targeting the kingdom’s southern city of Najran.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/06/us-yemen-security-saudi-idUSKBN0OM05T20150606

Scud missile at Saudi Arabia which the kingdom said it shot down on Saturday Scud was fired  at the city of Khamees Mushait in the kingdom’s southwest and was intercepted by two Patriot missiles, 80 percent of the 300 or so missiles had been destroyed. 1-metre-long (35-foot) Scuds have ranges of 300 km (200 miles) and more

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13940317001323

Saudis, including Royal family members, are in a rush to flee the country after Yemen’s first Scud missile hit a military airbase in Saudi Arabia’s South on Saturday, -traffic jam going on out of town

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13940317000473

Saudi Oil Firm Aramco Targeted by houthi who fired 5 missiles at Aramco’s oil facilities in Dhahran- second time in less than a month that Aramco’s facilities are targeted by the Yemeni missiles.

http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/06/05/414400/Yemen-Saudi-Ansarullah-Houthi

Houthi Ansarullah forces says it has captured a number of Saudi soldiers during border clashes.