In the summer of 2025, policy changes enacted by the Trump administration slowed the flood of migrants across the U.S./Mexico border to a steady stream.
The cartels, in order to protect their income, stepped up their efforts to corrupt local law enforcement in the border region, and where they couldn’t bribe, they intimidated, beefing up their armed security teams. It wasn’t long before one of the more hotheaded outfits got into a running firefight with U.S. cops, leaving multiple dead and wounded on both sides, and the media had a field day, portraying the new administration as being soft on the problem, and reneging on their campaign promises to protect U.S. citizens.
Stung by the accusations, the admin unleashed Ground Branch and CAG personnel, who had been training for just such a scenario. They embarked on a series of kill or capture operations with the tacit consent of the Mexican authorities, who were all too happy to have someone else to blame if it all went south. This resulted in the decapitation of the CJNG cartel, whose leadership wound up in either a U.S. jail, or a Mexican grave site.
Faced with a common enemy, the other cartels shelved their differences and pooled resources. They approached representatives of Iran’s IRGC who — stung by the decimation of their proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria — were only too glad to listen.
The cartels were mindful of what happened in Yemen in 2022 when the Houthis, in response to Saudi Arabia’s proxy war, unleashed a wave of unmanned aerial vehicles against oil and gas infrastructure. The Saudis quietly went to the negotiating table, and support for the Houthi’s opponents magically dried up.
In a secret deal, the cartels purchased 800 Shahed 136 one-way attack UAVs, and a support package that included training and targeting assistance. The total cost was less than $110 million USD, chump change for an organization with a 10-figure top line. By late fall, the package was ready.
