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10 Conflicts to Watch in 2016

Posted on 4 January 2016 by The Tactical Hermit
U.S. Army soldier provides security for infantry patrolling through Dandarh village, Afghanistan.
U.S. Army soldier provides security for infantry patrolling through Dandarh village, Afghanistan.

 

Pulling together a list of the wars most in need of international attention and support in 2016 is challenging for all the wrong reasons. For 20 years after the end of the Cold War, deadly conflict was in decline. Fewer wars were killing fewer people the world over. Five years ago, however, that positive trend went into reverse, and each year since has seen more conflict, more victims, and more people displaced. 2016 is unlikely to bring an improvement from the woes of 2015: It is war — not peace — that has momentum.

That said, there are conflicts whose urgency and importance rise above. This year’s list of 10 is weighted toward wars with the worst humanitarian consequences: Syria and Iraq, South Sudan, Afghanistan, Yemen, and the Lake Chad basin. It includes those in influential and functioning states, like Turkey, as well as those that have collapsed, like Libya. It features conflicts that are already bad but are poised to get much worse without intelligent intervention, such as Burundi, as well as tensions, such as those in the South China Sea, that are simmering but have yet to boil over. The list also considers the hopeful example presented by Colombia, where considerable progress is being made toward ending a 51-year insurgency.

Half of the conflicts on this year’s list involve extremist groups whose goals and ideologies are difficult to accommodate through negotiated settlement, complicating efforts to plot a path to peace. Looking ahead to 2016, it’s time to dispense with the notion that fighting against violent extremism suffices as a plan for world order — or even the basis of a solution for a single country like Syria. To be sure, stopping the abominations of the Islamic State and other jihadis is vital, but it also exposes policy dilemmas: The fear of what follows the demise of authoritarians (Iraq and Libya being prime exhibits) creates a strong incentive to back repressive regimes, but order based solely on state coercion is not sustainable. The dramatic increase in the reach and influence of jihadis over the past few years is a symptom of deeper trends in the Middle East: mounting sectarianism, a crisis of legitimacy of existing states, and escalating geopolitical competition, particularly between Saudi Arabia and Iran. When the enemy comes from within a given region, military action directed from abroad is more likely to aggravate than assuage.

Read the Remainder at Foreign Policy

3 thoughts on “10 Conflicts to Watch in 2016”

  1. PARTNERING WITH EAGLES says:
    4 January 2016 at 20:05

    Hammer… -Sigh- have to ask; did you ever claim Christ as your personal savior? The middle east, dominated by Islam, is a major player in Bible prophecy. I know the endgame, and it isn’t pretty. There will NEVR be peace! A false peace will come, when the political/religious person, (antichrist) comes to power. I say political/religious since it will take a special type of deception with a one world government, to get Israel to accept such a solution. As a vet, you need no primer as to Islamic intent. A worldwide Caliphate.

  2. Hammerhead says:
    4 January 2016 at 20:32

    To answer your question, Yes. And Yes I realize your point about Bible Prophecy. The reason I post these articles however is not because I do not realize that fact but to bring awareness to a segment of people who might not realize these conflicts are important to follow. The blog is about Awareness of your surroundings..local, state, national and geo-political and also Preparedness for the eventuality that everything is eventually gonna go down the crapper, regardless of everybody’s best intentions..the one thing I have always disagreed with most Christians about is this very prominent world view of not paying attention to world events because they know the “endgame”..OK, so you read your Bible and “think” you know how things are going to unfold, (I say that because the subject of eschatology among Christians is extremely diverse) why is that an excuse not to pay attention to world events? Should it actually beg the opposite conclusion?

    And lastly, Yeah Islam is a plague and we are going to have to deal with it as our ancestors dealt with it in the Crusades…as a Historian I understand that completely. I am also very Pro-Israel and have friends in the IDF and other agencies making sure Israel stays whole.

    Stay Dangerous.

  3. PARTNERING WITH EAGLES says:
    4 January 2016 at 20:44

    Well stated. The quagmire that is the middle east, Africa, and now China Re their territorial claims which as you stated “is simmering, but hasn’t boiled over” were most appropriate.
    Even trying to assess the most imminent threats are problematic, there are at least six major problems which we face here in the U.S. The 2016 elections and our corrupted electronic vote, which robbed our military TWICE, is a major problem. We must win back what is left of our Republic back this time around.

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